A 13,200 vessel is being designed to fit through the locks
A new element has been thrown into the Panama Canal discussion – a 13,200 TEU ship on the drawing boards at Samsung Heavy Industries. (The 2015 canal will take 12,600 TEU vessels of conventional design.) If this does come to fruition, it will tilt the scales to the advantage of the East and Gulf coasts.
Rodolfo Sabonge, Vice President of the canal authority, says the likely specs. will be LOA of 366 meters, a maximum draft of 15.5 meters, service speed of 23.5 knots and a deadweight of 143,000 tons.
Yet, even that increase in size is unlikely to make much of a difference. As a workshop in Florida recently concluded, "The Canal expansion may not be a “game changer” but certainly offers an improved option for the transport supply chain (Mid-America discretionary cargo, especially time sensitive goods)." The participants also reckoned, "The Canal is only one piece of the puzzle – hopefully improving ocean carrier stability."
Traffic volumes are expected to rise from last year's 6.6 million TEU to 8.4 million TEU in 2015. Seventy percent of the cargo transiting the canal is either destined for or originates in the US. Bulk goods are also likely to witness the biggest growth in volume with a wider canal, but containers will still be the main business.
Robert Landry of New Orleans cautions against putting too much emphasis on Asia trade lanes, as Latin America's trade growth in recent years has exceeded that of Asia, western Europe and the US.
The World Shipping Council's Anne Kappel says that port productivity is the key to handling long-term container growth.
Transshipment is definitely on everyone's mind when talking about services to the East Coast. Carlos Urriolo, head of Manzanilla port, was at pains to emphasize this, noting that 86 percent of the volume of traffic through the canal in 2011 involved transshipment. This brings in the Caribbean, with Kingston (the only port in the region with a draft of 17 meters—none of the others are more than 14 meters) and Freeport (Bahamas) being the big candidates.